If you’re house hunting in 2025, you’re probably feeling like you’re stuck between a rock and a hard place. On one hand, prices and interest rates have climbed high enough to make your dream home feel out of touch. On the other, storm clouds are gathering over the economy. For many would-be homebuyers, it’s a time of deep uncertainty—and maybe, oddly enough, a little hope.
A new survey from Realtor.com® reveals a revealing paradox: whereas nearly two-thirds of prospective buyers believe a recession is around the corner, a surprising number think it might actually help them finally get their foot in the door.
Recession Worries Are Up—But So Is Optimism
According to the survey, 63% of homebuyers say they expect the U.S. economy to slip into a recession within the next year. That’s a big jump from late 2024, and it marks the third-highest level of recession concern since 2019.
But where it gets interesting is: 30% of respondents said a recession would make them more likely to buy a home—not less. More than half said it wouldn’t affect their plans either way. Only 16% said it would make them less likely to buy.
It’s a counterintuitive twist, but not without logic. As Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu explains, “If the economy enters a recession, the Federal Reserve may respond by lowering interest rates to stimulate activity, potentially putting downward pressure on mortgage rates and easing affordability concerns.” That’s especially good news for first-time buyers or anyone scraping together a modest down payment.
Lower rates could mean lower monthly payments—and in a market where affordability has become a four-letter word, that’s no small thing.
The Flip Side of the Coin
Still, there’s no such thing as a free lunch. A recession, by definition, often comes with rising unemployment. For buyers who feel unsure about their job security, any drop in mortgage rates may be outweighed by the risk of signing up for a 30-year commitment they may not be able to afford down the line.
It’s a classic case of push and pull: even if the market gets more buyer-friendly on paper, the emotional and financial strain of an economic downturn could cause people to hold back.
And it’s not just psychological. In a recession, lenders tend to play defense. “This trend is not surprising, as lenders usually tighten credit standards during periods of economic uncertainty or market volatility to mitigate risk,” Xu writes. That means stricter rules around credit scores, down payments and proof of income, possibly shutting out buyers who are already on the margin.
The Inventory Squeeze Persists
Even as economic clouds gather, the most stubborn problem in the housing market hasn’t gone anywhere: there still aren’t enough homes to go around.
Nearly 44% of buyers said they simply can’t find a home that meets their needs. That’s been the top barrier to homeownership in the survey since 2019, and even though active listings jumped 31% in April compared with a year ago, total inventory is still 16% below where it was before the pandemic.
So yes, more homes are coming online—but not nearly enough to meet the pent-up demand.
A Market That’s Catching Its Breath
If there’s a silver lining, it’s that the market doesn’t feel as frantic as it did a couple of years ago. Fewer buyers say they’re worried about overbidding or being outgunned in a bidding war. That suggests the housing frenzy of the pandemic era is cooling off, granting today’s buyers a bit more breathing room to look around and negotiate.
It’s a slower-paced market now. But for many, that’s exactly what they’ve been hoping for.
A Waiting Game With No Clear Answers
For now, it’s all about watching and waiting. J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli says recession odds are still “elevated” but have dipped below 50% after recent trade tensions eased. That’s hardly a green light for buyers—but it’s not a red one either.
The truth is, no one really knows what the next 12 months will bring. But for many buyers, a downturn might not be the nightmare it’s often made out to be. In fact, it could be just the shake-up they need to finally take the leap into homeownership—if, that is, they can manage the risks that come along with it.
Because in this housing market, nothing comes easy. But maybe, just maybe, a little turbulence is what it takes to get things moving again.
